Thesis Creator - Private Ideas

CREATE YOUR INVESTMENT THESIS USING C.I.V.C

Apply CHANGE - IMPLICATIONS - VALUATION - CATALYSTS to any stock or index

Functions
Daily Briefing
Research Desk
Charting
Macro Trends
Ideas
Screener
Thesis Creator
Earnings Cal
Excess Returns

Sectors
Tech
Consumer
Industrials
Health Care
Financials
Materials
Comm Services
Utilities
Real Estate

Geographies
US/ Nth Am
Europe
China Asia Pac
Japan

External Tools
Factset Podcasts
Insiders
Analyst Changes
Fund Holdings
Trending Stocks

Analyze consensus estimates and multiples to forecast your thesis inputs

Use the Koyfin App below to review current consensus estimates, their trends, variability over time and range of multiples the stock has traded on over time in order to forecast your valuation metric and multiple. This app will NOT retain your stock selection once you click back to the thesis. If you want to open Koyfin in a separate Tab Window, use the Koyfin Launch button on right of Tabs above.

Koyfin Quick Function Links:

In the search box at top of App, enter your stock code and select. The enter "/" with the following codes for fast function access":

/EST - Estimates Overview

/ERT - Estimate trends chart (how estimates are changing over time)

/EAC - Table of Actuals and near term consensus forecasts

/FA.X - Valuation Multiples (select the green chart on left of your chosen multiple to see historical ranges and trends in the multiple)

IDEA INTRO Enter a title for your idea, the stock code and whether its a long or short idea

Idea Title

Stock Code

Enter Stock Code

Idea Type

CHANGE Set the scenario for your thesis. What is changing and how will that change consensus thinking?

Change

IMPLICATIONS Describe and calculate how the changing scenario will affect the main value drivers

Implications

Primary Value Driver *

Select which metric your will use to base your valuation on (eg Forward EPS, Sales per share, EBITDA, EBIT or Book Value)

Current Consensus Estimate (Next 12 Months)

Use the Kyofin App within the "Multiples & Estimates" Tab above, to enter the current value of the NTM consensus estimate for your value diver

Current Estimate

Future NTM Estimate (shifted another Yr Fwd)

Enter your forecast for the same value driver, that you expect the company to achieve, shifted forward another year if your idea is over a 12mth+ horizon

Future Estimate

Tip: Remember that 1 Yr from now, the narket will be capitalizing the earnings the company will achieve in the following year from that point.

VALUATION Choose your primary valuation metric and how you see it changing

Primary Valuation Metric *

Select what valuation metric you prefer to value this company. Default in Fwd Price / Earnings

Current Consensus Multiple

Use the Kyofin App within the "Multiples & Estimates" Tab above, to enter the current value of your preferred valuation metric, that the stock is trading at now

Current Multiple

Future Forward Multiple

Future Multiple

How is the valuation multiple itself likely to change given the changing conditions? Re-rate (acceleration) or De-rate (deceleration)? Use the Koyfin App to see how the multiple has changed over time

Valuation Notes (optional)

Current Share Price

Record the current share price at the time of lodging your idea for future reference:

Current Share Price

Target Share Price

Target Price

Record the target price for your idea. This should be derived from your Future Forward Multiple above multipled by your Future Estimates. (eg Future P/E x Forecast NTM EPS (1 year from now)